One of the easiest decisions this offseason for the Detroit Lions was picking up the fifth-year option of star pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson, guaranteeing him $19.872 million for the 2026 season.

Hutchinson, the No. 2 pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, accumulated 21 sacks and 149 pressures over his first two seasons, but played just five games in 2024 due to a fractured tibia and fibula.

He returned to the practice field earlier this offseason and is expected to be all good for Year 4, where the Lions will push for a Super Bowl after going 15-2 in 2024 before falling short in the playoffs.

Hutchinson is Detroit’s superstar defender, and will return as the leader of the unit in 2025, hoping to return to his previous form and remain a Pro Bowl-caliber player.

Entering the fourth year of his career, it’s natural that extension talks are happening for Hutchinson, who has two years of team control left with the fifth-year option exercised.

Lions general manager Brad Holmes acknowledged the possibility, noting that the team has already begun to budget for the ever-rising defensive end market.

“[The rising cost for edge rushers] is what it is,” Holmes said earlier this offseason, via Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press. “I mean, we had it in that range kind of already when we do our future planning and budgeting, but then obviously when it goes up it just goes up and that’s just what you got to prepare for.”

Given the injury and the team control, Detroit could wait another offseason to sign its star pass rusher. But the price tag would undoubtedly go up if Hutchinson produces like he did in 2024 before the injury, where he was arguably a top-five defender in football.

So, it could make sense for Hutchinson and the Lions to reach an extension early and get a long-term deal done before the start of the 2025 season. What could that look like?

Baseline numbers for an Aidan Hutchinson contract extension

There have been quite a few major deals in the edge rusher market this offseason, with some potentially still on the way.

Myles Garrett became the highest-paid defender in the NFL when signing a four-year extension worth $40 million annually with the Cleveland Browns.

Maxx Crosby also inked up with the Las Vegas Raiders on a three-year, $106.5 million deal that includes $91.5 million guaranteed. And Danielle Hunter got a massive one-year, $35.6 million extension to keep him in Houston until 2026.

Not to mention, T.J. Watt, Micah Parsons, and Trey Hendrickson are all looking for long-term deals this offseason. So, it’s been a busy market for edge rushers, to say the least. Where does Hutchinson fit into the mix?

Well, looking first at the Lions’ numbers, they have handed out four-year deals to most of their young stars, including Amon-Ra St. Brown (four years, $120 million), Penei Sewell (four years, $112 million), Alim McNeill (four years, $97 million), and Kerby Joseph (four years, $86 million).

I’d immediately look at Crosby’s deal as the bottom-tier baseline for Hutchinson. While Crosby has a longer resume and some better numbers, he’s coming off a season where he had 7.5 sacks and is three years older than Hutchinson.

The injury could play a factor, but I still believe Hutchinson will get a strong deal, and the market is only continuing to grow. The question is will he eclipse the $40 million per year barrier set by Myles Garrett?

Projecting a new Aidan Hutchinson’s deal

Looking at our baselines, Crosby’s deal was a three-year, $106.5 million extension with $91.5 million in guarantees. Now, being older, it makes sense for Crosby to seek a three-year deal, but I believe the Lions will stick to their trend and look for a four-year deal with Hutchinson.

In a way, the structure could be very similar to Penei Sewell, who was extended heading into Year 4 with two years of team control left.

While I was initially skeptical that Hutchinson could reach the $40 million range, the ever-evolving pass-rusher market makes me believe that he’ll ultimately get to that figure on a per-year basis for the new money.

To put matters into perspective, the Lions star currently has two years and $30 million remaining on his rookie contract when factoring in the fifth-year option. So, if he were to sign a four-year deal worth around $160 million, that would take his total compensation to six years and $190 million, which factors to around $31.7 million per year.

That’s still a large sum of money, but it would rank as the sixth-highest salary for a defensive player in the NFL, not first.

When considering that, it would be smarter for the Lions to get ahead of the contract before the market skyrockets to get a deal done. It also seems to be in Hutchinson’s best interest to lock in a long-term contract after his major injury this offseason, so I could very well see the two sides attempt to hammer out an extension over the coming months.

Projection: 4 years, $160 million, $124 million in total guarantees